5.3.12 Update: JPY Pairs (NZD/JPY Target hit)

I think I have harped enough on the JPY pairs over the past month or so. Here was a favorite of mine, NZD/JPY, which has finally completed its cone trade down to the weekly 20 period moving average. I took the remaining small portion I had on off once price met with the 20MA. This trade has been great incredible over the past month.

Currently, I have an open position in GBP/JPY which still has a ways to go before completing its cone trade. I am also keeping a close eye on CAD/JPY once again, looking for another opportunity to enter and ride price down to it’s weekly 20. Both GBP/JPY & CAD/JPY have brought nice profits over the past month and I don’t think they are finished just yet.

5.2.12 Update: GBP/CAD

The big bottoming tail on the 4hour kicked off a nice up move in GBP/CAD. Once price placed itself above the moving averages, it retested and held support before continuing higher. I took a majority of my position off a the prior high in the 1.60600 area. This proved to be the perfect profit taking location as price rejected hard off this area. From my original entry at 1.59080, I was able to book a little over 150 PIPS; and from my add at 1.59525 I was able to book another 100 PIPS.

At the moment I am flat in GBP/CAD. However, I still have a great interest in this pair, despite the huge topping tail on the 4hour, in large part to what is happening on the daily chart. On the daily price has began to ride the moving averages. I will continue looking for entries in this pair as I see price going much higher. Once price gets above its prior high, we should be clear to reach the next stop of 127.2 extension level.

Stay tuned …

4.29.12 A Look Ahead: NZD/USD

From the end of last year, NZD/USD has made an impressive bullish move. Over the past two months or so, NZD/USD has naturally pulled back and is now consolidating. This pair has been stuck within a very tight trading range over the past eight weeks or so. The multiple bottoming tails show that price seems to have found support at this level. This consolidation has now allowed the weekly 20 period moving average to catch up. This could propel price to break above this consolidation area relatively soon. Let’s take a look at a lower time frame …

On the 4hour chart, NZD/USD is beginning to show its strength. Price has made a forceful push through the 200 period moving average. The stacked elephant bar has created a buy zone for us to pay attention to. Let’s look for a pullback within this zone and a buy setup. Before this pair takes off to the upside I think we will need to see the moving averages (8 & 20) get above the 200 period moving average. I have a target of 0.85775 that I think we could relatively easily before we get any sort of resistance. However, we must break above that consolidation area on the weekly.

Let’s keep a close eye on this one.

4.26.12 EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP Daily

Here’s a gem! I have had a short position in EUR/GBP since around November.  This trade has been slowly, but surely making its way lower to the target of .80000.  Yesterday price rallied hard into the 20 period moving average, only to get slapped back down giving us a nice topping tail.  Today’s sell trigger at the break of yesterday’s low gave me the opportunity to add to my position in EUR/GBP.  As you can see this pair continues to respect the moving averages and are in a nice downtrend.  Let’s look for EUR/GBP to continue riding the moving averages down…

4.26.12 GBP/CAD

GBP/CAD Daily

A couple of months ago I put GBP/CAD on the radar as a pair I wanted to keep an eye on as I felt it had great potential to the upside due to the ascending triangle this pair has formed on the weekly chart.  For a couple of weeks I entered, got stopped out, entered again got stopped out, and the cycle repeated a few times.  More than I would have liked.  I was simply jumping the gun and being very “trigger happy”.  My mistake a couple of months ago was that I failed to let price prove itself to me as I took set ups on my lower time frames all below the weekly moving averages.

If we take a look at GBP/CAD today, price has made its way above the weekly moving averages and seems to be forming a catch play.  Looking at the daily, price has continued to rise making higher lows.  After breaking above the 200 period moving average on the daily, price has retested that area.  Whenever you break through resistance that area becomes support.  Bouncing off the 200 and the 20 MA after the retest I took a 4Hour entry on a nice big bottoming tail.  I also have a buy stop on the trigger of the daily buy setup.  I think from this area price could reach 1.62300 before seeing any real resistance.

4.23.12 Update: JPY Pairs (Adds & Second Round)

Last week I played GBP/JPY down to 127.300 for a healthy gain. From this point GBP/JPY rallied pretty hard. Entering this week I was looking for the possibility of a lower high on the daily but I was a little skeptical because the late week rally left price out of the cone trade and back above the weekly moving averages. Here is the dilemma: is this early movement giving us a lower high? Or is this a pullback to the moving averages and a catch? Whenever price rallies and breaks above the moving averages it tends to retest the area it just broke. So determining whether this is a lower high or a catch play, we will have to wait and see. We need more data. Two things to keep in mind: GBP has been strong across the board in all pairs; all JPY pairs have experienced weakness over the past couple of weeks. My gut feeling is that we get weakness before strength in this pair. However, lets be smart and let price settle things. It will be interesting but let’s keep an eye on things.

Last night I did see indications of weakness, not only in GBP/JPY but all of the JPY pairs, and took a short entry on the hourly. I have recently taking some profit bringing my total gain in this pair over the past two weeks to 325 PIPS. I will be keeping an close eye on this pair and how it closes this week. It could give us a close back below the weekly 8MA and become valid for a cone trade once again. But remember, let price work itself out in this in between state.

CAD/JPY, a lot like GBP/JPY, rallied late last week. Although breaking above the daily moving averages price rallied into resistance of the weekly 8MA. Today’s price action gave us a rip back below the moving averages. Also, entering this week CAD/JPY was still valid for the cone trade down to the weekly 20MA. Last night, I entered into a short on the hourly of CAD/JPY. Looking good so far. Let’s see if we can take this one down to 79.700.

NZD/JPY has been a favorite of mine for a couple of weeks now. I absolutely love this pair!!! NZD/JPY has continued to respect the daily 20MA as it riding the train down south. At some point last week I took some profit in this pair and looked to add back. That add back I was looking for came last night on the hourly chart. I entered after price broke below the hourly 200MA and rejected off that area. So far NZD/JPY has given us a nice push down. I think once price breaks below the 65.500 area we should see 64.700 pretty easily.

4.19.12 UPDATE: GBP/JPY & NZD/JPY

GBP/JPY Daily

GBP/JPY worked out extremely well.  I played this one just how I mentioned in my most recent update ( 4.12.12 UPDATE: JPY Retracement ) as I took a big chunk of my position for 245 PIP profit at 127.300 and left a very small piece on at break even.  My first target of 127.300 has proven to be pretty spot on as GBP/JPY bounced nicely from this area.  Now that I am flat in GBP/JPY I will be looking for chances to enter once again.  Lately GBP/JPY has been rallying pretty nicely, however, let’s see if we get a lower high on the daily chart.  A lower high and a move to duck back below the weekly 8 period moving average will spark my interest at entering once more on GBP/JPY for another ride down.  GBP as a whole has been strong across the board in the market for the majority of this week so we will have to wait and see how things turn out….

NZD/JPY Daily

My NZD/JPY seems to continue to be trucking along.  I love how this pair continues to respect the 20 period moving average.  A few days ago when NZD/JPY got back into the prior low area I did take some profit as I awaited the break.  From this point NZD/JPY gave way to a short lived rally.  Still respecting the daily moving averages and has made more than one lower high on its 4Hour chart.  I still have a target of 66.700 and will be looking for opportunities to add back what I took off.  Stay tuned ….

4.14.12 Update: JPY Retracement

First, I want to start of with the GBP/JPY. This pair was the one I was most intrigued by entering this previous trading week. I was very enthused by the lack of support on the way down, as well as the profit potential of this pair as a short down to the weekly 20. Well this week I was able to capture a 150PIP move in this pair. Currently, it looks as though GBP/JPY is respecting its daily moving averages as it rides the 8MA down. If you remember correctly from my update on this pair, I was awaiting an add opportunity. I was unable to add on the daily sell setup which triggered on Friday so I will be looking for an add come Sunday evening. The plan for this pair is still the same: I will be taking some profit in the 127.300 area, which is close to 100PIPS away, because of the coinciding Fibonacci levels. However, the final target is still the weekly 20MA which is approximately 300PIPS away.

Now let’s take a look at NZD/JPY. I have had a short position in this pair for two weeks now and I really have admired the movement in this pair. The same with movement in all the other JPY pairs. NZD/JPY, very similar to GBP/JPY, is riding its daily moving averages down. I like the rejection it showed off the 20MA in Friday’s trading activity. I think we could look for some follow thru early next week. My target for this pair lies in the 66.500 – 66.700 range which is still approximately 200PIPS away.

Other JPY pairs:
1. EUR/JPY is approaching target of the weekly 20MA
2. CAD/JPY (seen above) is riding daily moving averages. Target is the 88.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 79.000
3. CHF/JPY has hit target 1
4. AUD/JPY has hit its target of the weekly 20Ma to complete its cone trade

4.11.12 Update: GBP/JPY

Coming into this week I directed everyone’s attention to all of the JPY pairs and the profit potential available. One pair in particular that I zoned in on was that of the GBP/JPY ( A Closer Look: GBP/JPY ). To start the week GBP/JPY had a short lived rally to retest the area it broke, the 4hour 200MA, which is the same location as the daily 8MA. I entered into my short position at 129.750 after being triggered into the market on a 4hour sell setup. From my entry, GBP/JPY accelerated to the downside giving us the move we were looking for. I took some profit in the 128.200 area because this area was that of GBP/JPY monthly 20MA and went to a break even stop. This has proven to be a nice take profit location as GBP/JPY has bounced from this area. I am currently awaiting an add opportunity on the pullback. My plan is to take the next move down to 127.300 because of coinciding Fibonacci levels from the weekly chart. However, the final target on this pair still remains the weekly 20MA, in the 124.700 area.

Stay tuned …

4.7.12 A Closer Look: GBP/JPY

I spent part of my Saturday morning glancing at some charts and reviewing this past week’s action. One pair that I came across which stuck out some was that of the GBP/JPY. If you refer back to my “Look Ahead” piece this week you will notice I mentioned GBP/JPY as a pair that I would keep a close eye on and look to take advantage of over the coming weeks. In the near future I expect this pair to experience some downside, as it is valid for a cone trade on its weekly chart.

Reviewing the charts this morning I thought it would be good to give you guys a closer look at GBP/JPY. If you notice, on it’s hourly chart, GBP/JPY gave us a bear elephant bar. After showing the strength to the downside, price has consolidated. We could look to take advantage of the sell zone created from its bear elephant bar by looking for any sell setups within this zone.

Another key point to make is that the hourly bear elephant bar also showed a very forceful break of support (200 – period moving average) on the 4hour chart of GBP/JPY. After breaking support, typically price retests the previous area the it broke. We could look to take advantage of a sell setup after a retest of the moving averages on the 4hour chart. From where GBP/JPY is currently trading there are 220PIPS to be captured down to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level, 413 PIPS to the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level, and approximately 505 PIPS down to the final target of the weekly 20-period moving average.

I will be keeping a close eye on this pair next week. Let’s make some money …